So Goes Tennessee So Goes The Country??

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Being that I am Tennessean by birth, stripe and color, I try when I can to defind my native soil especially in national politics.  Tennessee is not known as a particularly hot den of politics and is often overshadowed by it's big brothers to the Northwest (Virginia with 13 electoral votes), West (North Carolina with 14) and South (George with 23) when it comes to national election.  Despite it's eleven electoral votes, is is a particularly good bell weather when compared to states that are known as political game changers such as Ohio or New Hampshire with a well publicized primary. Two examples of this are the recent discussion of the 2012 Tennessee primary, and Tennessee's little known bell weather status.
Tennessee's primary never gets the press that New Hampshire's warrants, but this year in particular it is going to be a deciding factor for Mitt and the boys.  Romney has not done well in the south, Paul needs as many delegates as he can muster, and Santorum just needs to stay sain and try not to sound too much like a loon. 

Tennessee's primary is the one of only two competitive southern states, and the only southern state not home to a candidate.  This is nit-picking to some, but frankly it is important if you look at it.  Home states are typically give-mes (unless your Mitt Romney or Al Gore) and outsiders tend to only garner the votes of those unhappy with the homeboy for personal reasons. You might be asking about Virginia, but it will not be competitive as there are only two names on the ballot in the Commonwealth.  So that leaves my Volunteer State.

Tennessee primary is important this year for other reasons than it's one-of status.  Tennessee is typically a good judge of political horse flesh, particularly Republican.  The state has a Republican Governor (Bill Haslam), Senators (Alexander and Corker), and a.Republican controlled state house. That is pretty red by any one's standards.  George W. Bush won Tennessee's Republican primary, as did John McCain.  All of these stack up to pretty stout Republican credentials.

Bill Frist- R, Bob Corker-R, Howard Baker- R, Lamar Alexander-R

Regardless of Tennessee's red leanings, the state is not afraid to go blue. While the top coat might be red, the heart is blue. All three of Tennessee's presidents were Democrats. William Jennings Bryan did well in the state.  Tennessee went to FDR all four times as well as Harry Truman.  LBJ racked up a Big Orange victory as well as Jimmy Carter.  President Obama did well in Knoxville, and Memphis, and surprisingly well in Northeast Tennessee.  Democrats do well in Tennessee, with the lone exception of Al Gore, who leads me to my next point.

William Jennings Bryan Won Tennessee

Tennessee is actually a fair bell weather.  It has a better track record than both of it's bigger brothers.  It has only two more loses to it's record that Ohio since 1960, and we are not afraid to go against one of our own.  Harken back with to me to 2000 when Al Gore (native son) would have won  the election if he had only carried his home state.  Following what had to have been one of the more foolish assumptions on the part of his campaign manager, Gore campaigned little in the state and almost wholly on the western quarter.  Bush on the other hand hit East (mind you East Tennessee has almost split away from Tennessee twice...look it up) Middle and West.  He polled well in the Nashville business hub, and did fair in Memphis.  All of this to show you that if Tennesseans will not vote for their own son for not campaigning, they may well not vote for you if you ignore them.

Gore Only Kept One Eye On Tennessee And It Hurt Him

Romney and the gang had better pay attention to us, or they may find themselves hurting in November.  We're an independant lot, and have been for along time.  We may not get the glamour that everone else gets, but much the blue-tick hounds that put us on the map, we'll be right there in the end.